Republicans have no chance of winning a majority in the Senate, but Democrats may have more stable control no longer at the mercy of Joe Manchin.
Senator Cory Booker, NJ, poses for a selfie video with Senator Raphael Warnock, D-GA, during a rally in Sandy Springs, GA, on Saturday, Nov. 26, 2022. Ben Grey/AP Photo
If Raphael Warnock wins in Georgia next week, the Democrats will have more than one Senate seat: a true majority.
The runoff on Dec. 6 between Warnock and Republican rival Herschel Walker is a hugely important individual Senate race. He decides whether the Senate will remain evenly divided, which gives Joe Manchin the tie-breaking Democratic vote and Republican control again.
Warnock’s win will bolster Democrats on almost everything in the Senate, from committees to the boardroom, and also improve the party’s defenses ahead of a tough 2024 map.
Georgia is a prime example of the ability of one race to change the composition of the Senate, even if it does not determine the majority. As happy as Democrats are to control the House of Representatives, they have learned over the past two years that control of 50 seats has significant limitations: tied committees mean partisan subpoenas are impossible, and nominations can take days to get to the House Senate and only one scammer. The Democrat can slow down.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, the 51-seat Senate, was finally able to exert more effective tactical control over the session, while Democratic majorities on committees could decide with impunity which candidates and legislation to send to a full session.
“There’s probably more difference between 50 and 51 than there is between any other two numbers in this place,” said Senator Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat. “The failure of one senator to stick to the agenda also matters. It is easy to make an alliance here, it is much more difficult to make an alliance of two.”
U.S. Senate Republican nominee Herschel Walker (R) and Senator Lindsey Graham (Republican) gesture to a crowd at a campaign event in Cumming, Georgia, Thursday, Oct. 27, 2022. John Bazemore/AP Photo
The last time one game had a similar impact, without creating or breaking a majority, was in 2017, when Sen. Doug Jones (D-Alabama) reduced the Republican majority to 51 seats, shattering any remaining GOP hopes for a repeal of Obamacare. Another particular electoral shock came in 2010, when Republican Scott Brown’s victory broke the overwhelming majority of Democrats.
The stakes are also high for Republicans in December, as the party lost a chance to regain control of the Senate earlier this month and failed to topple any incumbent Democratic president. A Walker victory in Georgia would allow Republicans to further slow down President Joe Biden’s agenda, stump Democratic committees and give them the option to flip the Senate in 2024 or, if the vacancy results in a snap election before then.
Republican interest in the runoff was immediately apparent on Monday afternoon. After acknowledging the Thanksgiving break in a statement, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell spent minutes slamming Warnock and Senator John Ossoff (D-GA) as Biden’s “reckless clichés.”
“This will prepare you for 2024,” said Senate Minority Representative John Thune (RSD), adding that “an equal split in the Senate means you get equal representation on committees. committee level nominations. So it will have real consequences.”
Republicans have ousted only one Democratic incumbent since 2019 and are seeking support after a month of bitter infighting, with McConnell being challenged for the first time. Thus, the biggest gain for the Republicans from defeating Warnock may be a morale boost after a disappointing November.
Regardless of Georgia’s outcome, the Senate legislative filibuster will remain in place as both Manchin and Senator Kirsten Sinema (D-Arizona) oppose relaxing the 60-vote threshold required to pass most bills. But the difference between 51 seats and 50 seats is crucial to the specifics of the administration: Vice President Kamala Harris doesn’t have to cut so many ties on the field, and despite Manchin’s occasional objections, party nominees can be confirmed without illness. Democratic senators drive the Capitol into a frenzy.
Biden could even consider appointing Democratic senators to his cabinet without fear of losing control of the cabinet once they are confirmed. The 51-seat majority also gives Sumer more leeway should any member of his faction deviate.
“That’s the whole difference in the world,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut). “That really means we have the majority, not shaky control.”
Sen. John Tester (D-MT), chairman of the veterans’ affairs committee, said Warnock’s re-election would mean “having one more person on the committee that will make things better.” party lines – allows Republicans to delay lifetime nominations of judicial candidates in the event of a tie.
Also, as the new Republican majority in the House of Representatives vows to use its newfound supervisory powers against Biden’s son Hunter, the 51-seat Democratic majority in the Senate could be an important pillar for the party. Currently, Democrats in the Senate currently cannot unilaterally issue subpoenas and generally still operate under the old committee rules under the Republican administration.
“This changes the dynamics of the rules in the Senate Judiciary Committee. We must keep the old rules. We don’t have enough votes to change them,” said Senator Dick Durbin (R-Illinois), chairman of the commission. “Even more important issues, like issuing subpoenas, depend on whether you have a true majority.”
Georgia has been a bright spot for Democrats of late – without changing two state seats in the 2020 snap election, they won’t have a majority this time around. Interim victories for Democrats in Arizona, Nevada’s Kathleen Cortez Masto, New Hampshire’s Maggie Hassan, and Senator John Fetterman.
Conversely, if Walker wins, the Republicans can at best slow down the Democrats and prepare for next fall.
“As long as we have Donald Trump hanging around parties like a gargoyle, we need more than a shot in the arm,” said Senator Mitt Romney (R-Utah).
Post time: Dec-12-2022